The AFC champion Houston Texans will host the AFC wild card Cleveland Browns in the first game of the NFL’s super wild-card weekend. Kickoff is at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
The game total is set at 44.5 with the road team favored by 2.5 points.
There are multiple storylines in this game. Is it Rookie of the Year vs. Comeback Player of the Year? Will the Coach of the Year come from this game? And who can forget the Deshaun Watson trade and all the emotions that surround it for both fanbases.
Both teams have overcome major adversity to get to this spot. If you don’t want to choose a winner, consider betting on some player props instead. Here are a few to target this weekend.
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C.J. Stroud over 9.5 rushing yards (-110)
Let’s start with the passing prop. Stroud has passed for 2-plus touchdowns in eight of 15 games played this season. Yes, the Browns defense is tough, but I can’t see the Texans putting up a fight without Stroud throwing a pair of scores. The implied team total here is 21 for Houston, and backup QB Davis Mills was able to throw for two vs. this Browns defense in Week 16, so I’ll happily take the plus-money payout for the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year. I like the payout.
The Browns will likely be applying pressure and covering Nico Collins, so I am expecting Stroud to scramble more than usual. Though Stroud is a pocket-passer, he has shown that he will use his legs to move the chains when needed. Stroud has exceeded this rushing prop in seven of eight games played this season — including last week when he had 20 yards on the ground in a pivotal matchup with the Colts.
Joe Flacco under 23.5 passing completions (-105)
Do I think the Browns can win this game? Absolutely. Do I think the Texans will make it easy? No way. The Texans allowed just 13 completions to Gardner Minshew last week, and though they allowed 27 completions to Flacco in Week 16, that won’t repeat now that DeMeco Ryans has faced him once and the Houston defense has gotten healthier. The Texans only allowed more than 23 completions six times this season. Flacco has gone under in two of five games this season, and while he could still have plenty of passing yards, I’ll bet on longer completions rather than high volume. In Week 17, Flacco had just 19 completions vs. the Jets while passing for over 300 yards.
David Njoku over 55.5 receiving yards (-110)
Njoku has been in the zone since Week 14. The tight end has seen an average of nearly 10 targets and 93 receiving yards in the four games between Weeks 14 and 17 with Flacco at QB. He should be well-rested after not playing in Week 18 and this week he faces off vs. the Texans, who allowed an average of 57 yards and 5.8 catches per game to tight ends during the regular season. Though the Texans held him to only 44 yards in Week 16, I’ll bet he gets slightly softer coverage this weekend as the Texans will be concerned with limiting Amari Cooper who burned them for 265 yards and two scores just a few weeks ago.
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